17 research outputs found
The effect of focusing on loan decisions
In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis
A kvázi- Ă©s általánosĂtott hiperbolikus diszkontálás hosszĂş távon (Quasi- and Generalized Hyperbolic Discounting in Long Term)
Az intertemporális döntĂ©sek fontos szerepet játszanak a közgazdasági modellezĂ©sben, Ă©s azt Ărják le, hogy milyen átváltást alkalmazunk kĂ©t kĂĽlönbözĹ‘ idĹ‘pont között. A közgazdasági modellezĂ©sben az exponenciális diszkontálás a legelterjedtebb, annak ellenĂ©re, hogy az empirikus vizsgálatok alapján gyenge a magyarázĂł ereje. A gazdaságpszicholĂłgiában elterjedt általánosĂtott hiperbolikus diszkontálás viszont nagyon nehezen alkalmazhatĂł közgazdasági modellezĂ©si cĂ©lra. ĂŤgy tudott gyorsan elterjedni a kvázi-hiperbolikus diszkontálási modell, amelyik Ăşgy ragadja meg a fĹ‘bb pszicholĂłgiai jelensĂ©geket, hogy kezelhetĹ‘ marad a modellezĂ©s során. A cikkben azt állĂtjuk, hogy hibás az a megközelĂtĂ©s, hogy hosszĂş távĂş döntĂ©sek esetĂ©n, fĹ‘leg sorozatok esetĂ©n helyettesĂthetĹ‘ a kĂ©t hiperbolikus diszkontálás egymással. ĂŤgy a hosszĂş távĂş kĂ©rdĂ©seknĂ©l Ă©rdemes felĂĽlvizsgálni a kvázi-hiperbolikus diszkontálással kapott eredmĂ©nyeket, ha azok az általánosĂtott hiperbolikus diszkontálási modellel valĂł helyettesĂthetĹ‘sĂ©get feltĂ©teleztĂ©k. ____ Intertemporal choice is one of the crucial questions in economic modeling and it describes decisions which require trade-offs among outcomes occurring in different
points in time. In economic modeling the exponential discounting is the most
well known, however it has weak validity in empirical studies. Although according
to psychologists generalized hyperbolic discounting has the strongest descriptive
validity it is very complex and hard to use in economic models. In response to
this challenge quasi-hyperbolic discounting was proposed. It has the most important
properties of generalized hyperbolic discounting while tractability remains in
analytical modeling. Therefore it is common to substitute generalized hyperbolic
discounting with quasi-hyperbolic discounting. This paper argues that the substitution
of these two models leads to different conclusions in long term decisions
especially in the case of series; hence all the models that use quasi-hyperbolic discounting
for long term decisions should be revised if they states that generalized hyperbolic discounting model would have the same conclusion
A kiszámĂthatatlanság fokozatainak szerepe a közgazdaságtanban = The Nature of Uncertainty in Economics
A jövĹ‘ megfelelĹ‘ modellezĂ©se Ă©s az Ăgy adĂłdĂł problĂ©mák elemzĂ©se mindig is a közgazdaságtan egyik központi kĂ©rdĂ©se volt. A jövĹ‘ kiszámĂthatatlanságának mĂ©rtĂ©ke viszont
eltĂ©rĹ‘ lehet, attĂłl fĂĽggĹ‘en, milyen modellezĂ©st alkalmazunk. A jövĹ‘ kiszámĂthatatlanságát a modellezĹ‘k leggyakrabban „kockázatos”-nak tekintik, mĂ©gpedig azĂ©rt, mert ennek a
megközelĂtĂ©snek vannak a legelĹ‘nyösebb matematikai tulajdonságai, miközben az is igaz,
hogy ezt elfogadva kell a legerĹ‘sebb feltevĂ©sekkel Ă©lnĂĽnk. Keynes is erĹ‘teljesen bĂrálta ezt a
gyakorlatot, mivel fĂ©lrevezetĹ‘nek tartotta az Ăgy kapott eredmĂ©nyeket. Jelen tanulmány a
fogalmak bemutatása mellett arra hĂvja fel a figyelmet, hogy milyen hibákhoz vezethet, ha
nem ismerjük a jövőt érintő főbb modellezési technikák hiányosságait. Ezen hiányosságok
alapján érdemes lehet újragondolni a modelleket és azok eredményeit.
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The concept of uncertainty is one of the cornerstones of economics. However, there are
different conceptual frameworks of uncertainty and they can have different implications.
The most common approach is to assume that the future is risky because of its appealing
features even though this approach also requires the most unrealistic assumptions. Keynes
already extensively criticized this approach for being potentially misleading without considering the unmeasurable part of uncertainty. This paper reviews the main concepts of this
field and the potential mistakes because of choosing an inappropriate model
The effect of focusing on loan decisions
In this paper we investigate some implications of recent results about salience on loan decisions. Using the framework of focus-weighted utility we show that consumers might take out loans even when that yield them negative utility. We claim however, that consumers are more prudent in their decisions and might be less likely to take out such loans when the usual fixed- and increasing-installment plans are coupled with a decreasing-installment option. We argue that harmful loan consumption, especially in the case of loans with increasing-installments (e.g. alternative mortgage loans), could be decreased if a policy would prescribe presentation of loan repayment schedules in a way that employs this effect. Moreover, using the model of focus-weighted utility we give a possible explanation for the unpopularity of decreasing-installment plans, the success of increasing-installment plans and their higher default rate during the financial crisis
The Achilles’ heel of Salience theory and a way to fix it
Salience theory has been successfully used to explain a wide range of empirical and experimental phenomena such as the Allais paradox, framing effect, the preference reversal phenomenon or the decoy and compromise effects. In this paper we show that salience theory carries a notable flaw and under certain circumstances it suggests that a salient thinker may prefer a dominated option even when a strictly dominant alternative is available to her. To solve this problem we propose a possible alteration of the theory and show how it accounts for the same phenomena as the salience theory
A gazdasági várakozások hatása a tőzsdei momentumstratégiára
A momentumstratégia az egyik legelterjedtebb és leggyakrabban vizsgált tőzsdei
stratĂ©gia. A nemzetközi Ă©s a magyar piacokon elvĂ©gzett kutatások eredmĂ©nyei megmutatták, hogy a momentum – azaz a rĂ©szvĂ©nyek mĂşltbeli teljesĂtmĂ©nye – szignifikánsan kĂ©pes elĹ‘re jelezni a következĹ‘ idĹ‘szak várhatĂł hozamát. Számos lehetsĂ©ges magyarázat között a momentumstratĂ©gia jövedelmezĹ‘sĂ©gĂ©nek egyik jelentĹ‘s
magyarázata a viselkedĂ©si tudományokra Ă©pĂt. A tanulmány cĂ©lja a rĂ©szvĂ©nyek
hozamának elĹ‘rejelzĂ©sĂ©re használt momentumstratĂ©gia vizsgálata a magyar tĹ‘kepiacon a gazdasági várakozások alakulásának fĂĽggvĂ©nyĂ©ben. Ha a momentumstratĂ©gia jövedelmezĹ‘sĂ©ge valĂłban az emberi viselkedĂ©s miatt van jelen, akkor a tĂşlzottan pozitĂv gazdasági várakozások esetĂ©n erĹ‘sebb hatás várhatĂł a stratĂ©giátĂłl
Tudományos teljesĂtmĂ©ny mĂ©rĂ©se a magyar felsĹ‘oktatás gazdasági kĂ©pzĂ©seiben
A nemzetközi egyetemi rangsorokban a tudományos teljesĂtmĂ©ny mĂ©rĂ©se kap nagy hangsĂşlyt, mĂg a magyar egyetemi rangsorolási gyakorlat kisebb mĂ©rtĂ©kben jelenĂti meg ezt, Ă©s a nemzetközi irodalomtĂłl eltĂ©rĹ‘en nem a publikáciĂłs teljesĂtmĂ©ny alapján számolja. Tanulmányunk a Magyar Tudományos Művek TárhelyĂ©n (MTMT) alapulĂł egyedi adatok segĂtsĂ©gĂ©vel arra ad több lehetsĂ©ges pĂ©ldát, hogyan lehetne egy fontos szempontot a tudományos publikáciĂłk alapján beĂ©pĂteni a magyar egyetemi rangsorokba. Azt is megmutatjuk, hogy számos megközelĂtĂ©s alkalmazhatĂł, de ezek nagyon hasonlĂł következtetĂ©sre jutnak. Tehát a tudományos publikáciĂłn alapulĂł Ăşj szempont robusztus eredmĂ©nyt ad.*
Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kĂłd: I23
Impact of COVID-19 on different business models of European airlines
In addition to social damage, the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic also
caused huge economic losses in the beginning of 2020, especially for
companies in the tourism sector. The airline market was no exception.
This study examines the significance of the business model of European
listed airlines – low cost carriers (LCCs), full service carriers (FSCs) – for
stock market performance. We use event study on the 11 airlines
included in the sample. In terms of cumulative average abnormal returns,
i.e. the most significant deviations from expected returns, negative
phases can be detected in the entire and third stage of the pandemic.
FSCs performed significantly better than LCCs at the time of the
pandemic on 24 February, when European stock markets suffered the
most damage; the business model overwrote financial indicators during
the toughest period of the crisis. Although most LCCs had higher cash/
assets ratios, they still produced worse results than the average
performance of companies with lower cash/assets ratios. This analysis
helps to ensure that, in addition to examining financial indicators, the
enumeration of the business model in this industry can also be decisive.
The future possibilities of the research are discussed at the end of the study